ConfirmThem

I'm wondering who can verify that Stevens is ill. I mean I long for his retirement but obviously don't wish him ill-health. If he is going to retire immeninently, does anyone think he's just waiting until after the election to bid farewell? Was he planning to retire all along but didn't want his retirement and replacement to become an election year issue and decided to retire in December and is waiting until after the election to step down? Does this mean we'll he'll announce Friday? Oh, Insider, where are you? What says the chattering class?

True Carol, but then Bush could recess appoint the conservative of his choice until the 2008 election, when presumably the Reps would take it all back!

in 08 the Senate field is more against us than this year should have been. we have more seats to hold. and the Dem fraud machine will work overtime knowing a replacement justice is at stake, and that holds for the presidential race too.

I attended one of the oral arguments at the Court this morning. Unfortunately, I hadn't heard of these rumors beforehand, or else I'd have made a point to pay better attention to Stevens's mannerisms. I've never seen Stevens in public before, which lessens my ability to evaluate any change in his appearance, though I have seen him on TV a few times, and heard him on oral argument tapes.

With those caveats set out, it did occur to me that Stevens looked and sounded bad. The first thing that struck me was that he spoke very little--only once or twice in the entire hour-long argument, and even then only very briefly. This seemed contrary, in my mind at least, to his past practice. Also, when he did speak, his voice seemed weaker, more gravelly than I remembered. And he didn't seem especially sharp (Though it's tough to judge such a thing given how little he spoke). Bottom-line: he looked and acted every bit the 86 year-old man; not like someone playing tennis regularly. I would have no trouble believing that he's sick. Though, this could also be some post-hoc rationalizing on my part ...

For the record, Ginsburg, too, appeared frail and slow. But my sense is she's been this way for awhile now, and so maybe that's just her.

thanks for passing this along! sounds exciting (sitting in on SCOTUS, not the vulture watch). It is possible you are right about the posibility of post-hoc rationalization, and I think you are right about Ginsburg, she's always been frail. guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I think there are probably only a couple of seats in play in 08. Here is how I see it:

Rep Alexander, Lamar TN Solid Rep
Rep Chambliss, Saxby GA Solid Rep
Rep Cochran, Thad MS Solid Rep
Rep Collins, Susan ME Solid Rep
Rep Cornyn, John TX Solid Rep possible SCOTUS
Rep Dole, Elizabeth NC Solid Rep possible retirement
Rep Domenici, Pete NM Solid Rep
Rep Enzi, Michael WY Solid Rep
Rep Graham, Lindsey SC Solid Rep
Rep Hagel, Chuck NE Solid Rep possible presidential race
Rep Inhofe, James OK Solid Rep
Rep McConnell, Mitch KY Solid Rep
Rep Roberts, Pat KS Solid Rep
Rep Sessions, Jeff AL Solid Rep
Rep Stevens, Ted AK Solid Rep possible retirement
Rep Warner, John VA Solid Rep
Rep Allard, Wayne CO Likely Rep
Rep Coleman, Norm MN Likely Rep
Rep Craig, Larry ID Likely Rep
Rep Sununu, John NH Likely Rep
Rep Smith, Gordon OR Lean Rep

Dem Baucus, Max MT Lean Dem
Dem Johnson, Tim SD Lean Dem
Dem Biden, Joe DE Solid Dem possible presidential race
Dem Durbin, Richard IL Solid Dem
Dem Harkin, Tom IA Solid Dem possible retirement
Dem Kerry, John MA Solid Dem possible presidential race
Dem Landrieu, Mary LA Solid Dem
Dem Lautenberg, Frank NJ Solid Dem possible retirement
Dem Levin, Carl MI Solid Dem possible retirement
Dem Pryor, Mark AR Solid Dem
Dem Reed, Jack RI Solid Dem
Dem Rockefeller, Jay WV Solid Dem

Sen. John Warner will be 81 in 2008 and may retire especially since he may face popular VA Governor Mark Warner in that race.

Pete Domenici was considering retirement four years ago. He will be 76 in 2008. New Mexico is a dem leaning state with few GOP stars.

Mary Landrieu may have a tough race in 2008. She has never been that popular and her primary base of support is in the area of New Orleans that were wiped out. Thousands of those residents will not be there to vote in 2008. LA is trending to the GOP as it elected its first republican senator since reconstruction in 2004.

agree mostly with gg

Warner's seat could go if he retires (though if Webb wins, that may be less likely as the voters will probably want at least a split, on the other side, a similar scenario could develop in Montana, where the voters may (and would only) vote out Baucus if Tester wins. But I don't think Webb or Tester will win, which means the VA seat could be vulnerable and the MT seat will not be).

NM, CO, OR, and MN are certainly not sure things either

on the Dem side, as I said, Baucus is ONLY the least bit vulnerable if Tester wins. Landrieu is slightly more vulnerable than you give credit for, and I think Rockefeller could be beaten (and Lord, I hope the treasonous b@stard is killed (at the ballot box)). other than that, I none of the Dems are vulnerable at all (though the Repubs could make some headway in IA, MI, or NJ with retirements).

If Stevens is thinking about retiring (for any reason, not just health), he can do so now and rest easy. The Republicans no longer have the votes for a real conservative nomination.

Hope he isn't the one forced to leave for health reasons. He is my favorite justice, even over Scalia.